Carbocation Rearrangements in SN1 reactions

Would one get 1-(1-chloroethyl)-1-methylcyclobutane?

I am not sure if the driving force identification is correct? Is my going from a 2° to a 3° carbocation correct? Does anyone have any tips for knowing when to look out for rearrangements?

• An $\ce{sp^2}$ carbon would like to be around 120 degrees; that angle is not destabilizing in 5-membered or larger rings. – ron Nov 1 '14 at 20:53