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In the above reaction, first the -OH group is protonated after which it leaves creating a carbocation intermediate as shownenter image description here

Now, ring expansion is a more favourable rearrangement, however there is a confusion between which methylene shift should take place (the two possibilities are shown in orange and yellow) each of which would give two different products -
3-methyl cyclohexene or 2-methyl cyclohexene.

Please explain which methylene shift should occur and why?

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