I'll specifically answer this part of your question:
I would expect 50% of collisions in a gas of free hydrogen atoms to have up spins, and 50% to have down spins. So, on average, any given pair of hydrogen atoms are equally likely to either have parallel or antiparallel spins. Does this imply that only 50% of H–H collisions in that situation result in a bond, i.e. would this impact the yield of the reaction?
TL;DR: No, only 25% of collisions will be able to result in a bond.
In general, when you "measure" something in quantum mechanics, you force the system into the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions to some operator. In your case, you are looking at the electron spins, and once you measure them, your overall system is collapsed into an eigenstate of the spin operator. For a hydrogen molecule with its two electrons, those eigenstates are a singlet state $\alpha \beta - \beta \alpha$, and a triplet state with three "microstates" $\alpha \alpha$, $\beta \beta$ and $\alpha \beta + \beta \alpha$.
In the non-interacting case, we assume that each spin result ($\alpha$ or $\beta$) is measured with 50% probability on each of the free atoms.1 Then, for any pair of atoms, we measure each binary spin combination $\alpha \alpha$, $\alpha \beta$, $\beta \alpha$ and $\beta \beta$ with the same 25% probability. If those atom pairs now draw closer together and start to interact, then the $\alpha \beta$ and $\beta \alpha$ combinations must combine to form either the triplet or singlet microstates with equal probability; in other words, isolated atoms with opposite spins have equal chances of forming a singlet or a triplet state when they interact. However, the $\alpha \alpha$ and $\beta \beta$ combinations are also still possible, and since they belong to the triplet state, the latter still wins over the competing singlet state with a 3:1 ratio. And since we know that only the singlet state leads to formation of a bond, we expect 25% of atom collisions to be able to form a hydrogen molecule.
NOTE: As @Paul pointed out in the comments, the explanation here is solely regarding the probabilities of bond formation that come from the spin statistics. There are further effects from collision cross-sections and energy dissipation that I am not taking into account here. In reality, less than the 25% of atom-atom collisions stated above would actually result in the formation of a bonded molecule.
You may wonder: "If we measure eigenstates to the spin operator, how can the isolated atoms yield the specific spins combinations $\alpha \beta$ and $\beta \alpha$? The spin operator is still the same, so why wouldn't we expect to see the singlet and triplet states again? What happened to them?"
At this point, it's vital to remember one important rule: Any linear combination of eigenfunctions to the same eigenvalue is again an eigenfunction. 2 When two atoms are non-interacting, measuring the singlet or triplet microstates of $\alpha \beta \pm \beta \alpha$ is still perfectly possible; but the same is true for their linear combinations that form the "distinct" $\alpha \beta$ and $\beta \alpha$ states.3 What you measure now depends on what answer you seek, and each set of answers is as valid as the other. (But again, this is only true if there is no energy difference between the triplet and singlet states.)
Footnotes
1 Note that I'm treating this as the premise of your question. If your ensemble of atoms does not conform to this assumption, e.g., due to the presence of external fields, then the answer will also be different.
2 This is very easy to show. Assume $\hat{O} \Psi_1 = E_1 \Psi_1$ and $\hat{O} \Psi_2 = E_2 \Psi_2$, with $E_1 \ne E_2$. Then, $\hat{O} (a\Psi_1 + b\Psi_2) \ne (E_1 + E_2) (a\Psi_1 + b\Psi_2)$. However, if $E_1 = E_2 = E$, then $\hat{O} (a\Psi_1 + b\Psi_2) = E (a\Psi_1 + b\Psi_2)$.
3 Let $\alpha \beta + \beta \alpha = \Psi_1$ and $\alpha \beta - \beta \alpha = \Psi_2$, then $\frac{1}{2} (\Psi_1 + \Psi_2) = \alpha \beta$ and $\frac{1}{2} (\Psi_1 - \Psi_2) = \beta \alpha$.